[ Security Exhibition Network Smart Home
] Regarding the phrase "smart home has great prospects", I believe readers have been tired of listening in recent years. According to data provided by 36kr, the statistics and forecast of China's smart home market will increase from 2015 to 2023. By 2020, the size of China's smart home market will exceed 200 billion yuan. Especially when 5G technology is gradually popularized in 2020, the high-speed and low-latency characteristics of new communication technologies have given new development space for smart homes.
But when we look forward to the evolution of smart homes year after year like the stack of humans, we must first understand that the concept of smart homes, which has been invented since 2000, has really shown continuous development over the past two decades. Is the cumulative stepped development curve?
This may not be the case.
Technology, home appliances, channels: smart homes full of flowers
In rumors, Bill Gates' "smart mansion" was built in 1998, but if 1998 is used as the starting point for the development of smart homes, it seems a bit bullying. We might as well start counting in 2014. This year Google acquired Nest, so that people saw the combination of Internet companies and furniture scenes. China has also basically completed the popularity of mobile terminals. Many manufacturers have begun to raise the banner and enter the smart home field. .
Among them are not only traditional home appliance manufacturers such as Midea and Haier, but also mobile phone manufacturers such as Huawei and Xiaomi, as well as a large number of startups-iResearch data shows that from 2013 to 2018 H1, China's smart home industry alone is The angel round of financing reached 140.
In addition to these participatory roles in our conventional cognition, there is another area that has not previously been noticed by the technology circle-offline distribution channels. Because the concept of smart home involves a wide range, many ordinary sockets, light bulbs and other products need only add a communication module to achieve basic interconnection functions, resulting in a low entry threshold for smart homes. The home improvement market, especially the home improvement market in third- and fourth-tier cities, has also led to a phenomenon of "smart home joining". A large number of dealers are scattered in the sinking market, and it is even more convenient to obtain customers than many large brands we remember. .
With such rich participation roles, the early smart home market showed the following two characteristics.
The first is the diversity of ecological platforms. In the early days of smart home development, it was a common phenomenon to build an ecological platform with a mobile phone App + WiFi protocol. Gathering a large number of users on the ecological platform will undoubtedly mean obtaining a large amount of traffic, which has great temptation in the era when Internet traffic is increasingly expensive and exhausted. Therefore, there are a large number of start-ups that have obtained financing to sell products at low prices just to acquire users. Obviously for ordinary users, these ecological platforms are also relatively closed, limiting their choice of smart homes and affecting the overall experience.
There is also a diversity of communication protocols. In the smart home market, there are five common communication protocols: Wi-Fi, ZigBee, Bluetooth, Bluetooth Low Energy, Bluetooth Mesh, Z-Wave, and RF433. The communication protocols supported by different ecological platforms are also different. Some choose to focus on one protocol. For example, Xiaomi's IoT industry applications are mostly ZigBee protocols, while others choose to support as many protocols as possible, such as Huawei Hi-lin. Although most communication protocols with the same hardware can choose to join the same ecological platform, the differences are also real.
The five years that were stolen: What obstacles did the past smart home industry leave today?
So after a few years of brutal growth of smart homes in such a situation of full bloom, it is difficult to conclude that smart homes have accumulated an evolutionary base year by year. After all, the ideal state of smart home applications is actually "connected to the whole house"-it is better to use one terminal to control as many products as possible, and it is better if the products can automatically transfer information and decisions. Therefore, whether the communication channels between the hardware, especially the hardware purchased in different periods can be opened as much as possible, has become a key issue that the smart home needs to overcome in the future.
The accumulation of previous years has left a lot of foundation for this industry, such as users' longing for smart homes and initial contact, technology accumulation of technology companies and traditional enterprises, but also left many obstacles.
For example, some "nothing to do" ecological platforms. In the previous article, we mentioned that from 2013 to 2018, more than 140 smart home startups received angel round financing, but it is worth noting that only 30 rounds of financing were obtained in the past five years. Among these enterprises, if an ecological platform is established, these platforms will no longer accommodate new hardware products, and the platform itself and old products will gradually become accumulated.
There are also changes in communication protocols. In addition to different platforms and products currently choosing different communication protocols, many communication protocols themselves will also be updated. For example, the 2G communication module used by many IoT
products will no longer be applicable after the 2G network is taken out of the network, and it has changed from a smart home to an "ordinary home".
If the whole house intelligence is regarded as a network, then each hardware product will become a node, and a node failure will have a great impact on the entire network. In particular, home products are often not easily replaced once they are purchased. It is difficult to convince consumers to replace good home products for smart interconnection. For example, a user may have purchased a juicer in 2017, which could have been remotely controlled from a mobile phone. But in 2019, this ecological platform is no longer updated.It is difficult for users or other ecological platforms to incorporate this juicer into a smart chain, even if the entire kitchen is intelligent, This juicer is still likely to be an isolated island.
So I can only pray that those unreliable smart home products are smart speakers!
Clearance, accumulation, start again
So in this case, what kind of trends will happen in the smart home market in 2020?
Before answering this question, we might as well continue to start with the use of smart home.
As we said, "intelligence" in a smart home is a very broad concept. Instead of allowing home products to sense homeowners' needs and even moods to work automatically, in fact, home products can be connected to each other to perceive it. Enhance the life experience. Especially through the communication protocol to sense each other, the change is more the wiring problem in the room. For example, through a WiFi or Bluetooth protocol, using a mobile phone or a smart speaker to control the electric light, there is no need to place a light switch in the room. This not only enhances aesthetics, but also saves costs.
Therefore, the future development trend of smart home, naturally, must first meet the "integral connection" and "front placement" two conditions.
We can also make some bold additions to the development of smart home next year.
First of all, after the industry as a whole has overheated, a period of integration will naturally occur. For example, this year's beautiful Cuckoo announced a cooperation with Huawei Hilink, and Amazon acquired Eero. In the future, there may be more acquisitions and cooperation, and different products and brands will become more unified on the agreement and ecological platform. Even with the gradual landing of IoT-related standards, traditional home appliance manufacturers will further surrender and cooperate more in depth with technology companies instead of attempting to build their own ecological platforms.
At the same time, in order to better engage with users, especially in the front link, smart home brands should pay more attention to the creation of offline distribution channels. The opening of "smart model rooms" and cooperation with home improvement companies and even construction developers will increase the frequency.
In fact, from 2014 to 2019, smart home development has not left a solid foundation. In the coming year, the smart home industry may need to pay close attention to picking up wastes, sort out and clean up the problems left by past developments, grasp the useful parts, and clear out useless obstacles. Only after this can real cumulative growth be achieved.